NFL Exhibition Games-Week 1

[ESQAJM]

I see lots of games that I like for the first week, so I have a full card for all you degenerates that like to bet every game or lots of games.

Just to recap my handicapping method for preseason football-I rate all games by stars.

1* Better than 50% chance of winning
2* 60% chance of winning
3* 66%-75% chance of winning
4* Over 75% chance of winning
It’s very important to place your bets according to the number of stars as my higher star games are much stronger than the lower stars. If your basic bet is $50, a 2* game should be $100 and a 3* game should be $150 Thus you could end up losing 55% of your bets and still win money.

I personally don’t play my 1* games as I’d rather have more money riding on the higher stars, but I am listing them anyway. Anyone who doesn’t like to make a lot of bets should just stick to the 3* and 4* games as I do on weeks where I have several 3* or 4* bets and have a lot of money riding on them and don’t want to extend myself too much.

Also I place my bets early in the week as soon as the lines come out as I find whenever there is a line move, 80% of the time it moves against me.

For you guys that don’t like teasers, I want to explain why I play so many teasers and rate them so high. First the games in preseason tend to be closer games with relatively very few blowouts. I may not win every game I pick, but I’m close to the line 85%-90% of the time. Therefore when I add 6 points or 10 points to my picks, it turns them into a winning play instead of a loser. I find this a more effective tool in preseason than the regular season where the winning and losing margins are higher.

Don’t ask me for handicapping reasons for my picks. The reasoning is too weird to post. But my system has worked for me the last 5 years. Last year (the only year I posted) I was +13 units. My goal for preseason is +20 units. It’s a nice cushion to have going into the regular season.

Without any more BS here are my picks for week 1:

Detroit +3.5 2*
Detroit O36 3*
KC U43 2*
Carolina O35.5 3*
Denver +1 2*
Dallas U35 2*
Giants -3 2*
Giants O34.5 1*
NE -1.5 1*
Baltimore +3 2*
Baltimore U36 2*

6 point teasers:
Detroit +9.5
Detroit O30 3*

Detroit O30
Carolina O29.5 4*

Baltimore +9
Baltimore U42 2*

10 point teaser:
Detroit O26
Carolina O25.5
Detroit +13.5 3*

Good Luck
ESQAJM

 

[cruisin]

Thanks, and let's hit that 20units!arty:

 

[ACE-ACE]

I see lots of games that I like for the first week, so I have a full card for all you degenerates that like to bet every game or lots of games.

Just to recap my handicapping method for preseason football-I rate all games by stars.

1* Better than 50% chance of winning
2* 60% chance of winning
3* 66%-75% chance of winning
4* Over 75% chance of winning
It’s very important to place your bets according to the number of stars as my higher star games are much stronger than the lower stars. If your basic bet is $50, a 2* game should be $100 and a 3* game should be $150 Thus you could end up losing 55% of your bets and still win money.

I personally don’t play my 1* games as I’d rather have more money riding on the higher stars, but I am listing them anyway. Anyone who doesn’t like to make a lot of bets should just stick to the 3* and 4* games as I do on weeks where I have several 3* or 4* bets and have a lot of money riding on them and don’t want to extend myself too much.

Also I place my bets early in the week as soon as the lines come out as I find whenever there is a line move, 80% of the time it moves against me.

For you guys that don’t like teasers, I want to explain why I play so many teasers and rate them so high. First the games in preseason tend to be closer games with relatively very few blowouts. I may not win every game I pick, but I’m close to the line 85%-90% of the time. Therefore when I add 6 points or 10 points to my picks, it turns them into a winning play instead of a loser. I find this a more effective tool in preseason than the regular season where the winning and losing margins are higher.

Don’t ask me for handicapping reasons for my picks. The reasoning is too weird to post. But my system has worked for me the last 5 years. Last year (the only year I posted) I was +13 units. My goal for preseason is +20 units. It’s a nice cushion to have going into the regular season.



10 point teaser:
Detroit O26
Carolina O25.5
Detroit +13.5 3*

Good Luck
ESQAJM

GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND
THAT DETROIT ONE GOT ME THINKING....

WHY NOT TEASER THE UNDER IN THE CHI GAME
YOU LIKE THE UNDER AT 35.

I LIKE HOW YOU DO YOUR MONEY MANAGEMENT:toast:

 

[ESQAJM]

Ace: Sure you can tease the Chicago Under to 39.5 and that s/b a winner. But you need a second play. Should it be Chicago -3 or Miami +9. Smith is not fired up for preseason and I could envision a situation where Saban has his troops charging off the bench to win the first game. I don't like betting against virgin coaches.

The only thing that is interesting is that I could remember a few big line moves from last year and all of the moves were in the direction of the winning team ATS. It happened in the Indy game again (from -2.5 to pick) and it's happening here in the Chicago game. In preseason when you get a big line move it's caused by the insiders who know how a team is going to play. It's hard to go against a big move even though it looks tempting.
ESQAJM

 

[ACE-ACE]

100% Agree..

My Book Would Take A Open Teaser....dont You Just Hate To Let A Under 40 Get By You?

I Have Taking My Notes On Your Thread

Thx

 

[ESQAJM]

Ace: I was right. The line movement in this game evidenced the fact that the insiders knew that Chicago came to play as shown by their 2 late touchdowns to overcome an 11 point deficit. Anybody who started betting Chicago after the line had moved 1.5 points up till Chicago -2.5 was a winner. The late bettors pushed at -3.

Based on my comments in my post above, I'm going to start factoring line movements of more than 1 point into my handicapping for preseason.

ESQAJM

 

[Geppi]

Esqajm - ?

Who are you using for the pre-season teasers? I can't find a sportsbook that offers them.

 

[heart222]

try cris

 

[LEYKIS101]

Skybook has all the teasers up too, just a little later than some other books in posting their lines.

Im on all your 3 & 4 stars ESQAJM, lets get em!

:drink:

 

[AC]

Last year (the only year I posted) I was +13 units. My goal for preseason is +20 units. It’s a nice cushion to have going into the regular season.




does this mean you were +13 for preseason or for the whole season?

thanks for sharing your picks.

A

 

[ESQAJM]

Geppi: I use 2 books, Catalina and WSI. They both don't let me bet teasers until the day of the game. The straight bets can be made any time.

AC: I was +13 for preseason only. I don't handicap regular season as I suck. I follow Hansen, My Football Game and Ace-Ace Stick to them and you will have a good season. I also get a few good ideas from reading the board.

ESQAJM

 

[ESQAJM]

Based on my above comments on large line movements (which I said I was going to start factoring into my handicapping) there are 2 games that stand out.

NE went from -1.5 to +2. I have NE as a 1* play. If I had to make my picks now I would rate Cinn as a 1* play.

KC Under went from 43 to 41.5. I have the Under as a 2* play. If I had to make my picks now I would rate them as a 3* play.

Don't underestimate the power of a large line move. It indicated the winner in the first 2 games of this year and without checking my numbers I remember it happened a few times last year and always indicated the winner, especially the Denver game in week 4 last year, in which I lost my shirt. (Denver started out as -7 and went to -5 and ended up losing the game outright)

One other game I wanted to mention. I have the Giants -3 as a 2* play. In the first lines that came out which I saw in my local newspaper the Giants were +1. By the time my book came out with a line they were -3. I don't know if this could be considered as a true line movement or a correction of an erroneous line that was originally put out.

Anyway I'm leaving my picks as originally posted. Let's see what happens.
ESQAJM

 

[winbet]

ESQAJM,

I am not telling you how to suck eggs, but I hope this talk of line movement doesnt distract or compromise your original thinking. Nobody knows why these lines move, books are very twitchy in the pre-season and remember, if it wasnt for a pass int penalty, Miami would have probably won. The most important thing for people to be aware of is buying into inflated lines, which Chicago was. I doubt you will need my best wishes, but you have them anyways.

 

[ESQAJM]

Winbet: You may be right, I don't know, but I suspect that there is something to it. I'll be watching the line movements closely for the rest of preseason to see if I can get a feel for it.
ESQAJM

 

[ACE-ACE]

Good Luck Tonight

 

[LEYKIS101]

Awful start with that Detroit game. I have a feeling you will turn it around though.

Best of luck on Saturday's games.

:drink:

 

[ESQAJM]

Made the same mistake on the Detroit game that I did last year on 1 game. I was so sure that the game was going to be a high scoring shoot out that I fell in love with it and went way too heavy on the one game.

Let's see what happens tonight.
ESQAJM

 

[ACE-ACE]

Made the same mistake on the Detroit game that I did last year on 1 game. I was so sure that the game was going to be a high scoring shoot out that I fell in love with it and went way too heavy on the one game.

Let's see what happens tonight.
ESQAJM

I'M DOING THE SAME WITH NYG-2 1/2 PLUS NYG +7 ..PLUS NYG+10....
IT NOT A GOOD IDEAL TO PUT ALL YOUR EGG IN ONE BASKET
BUT IF YOU WIN ...YOU GOT ONE HELL OF A OMELET:toast: